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FORECASTING AND PREVENTION OF NATURAL DISASTER
MAURIZIO FERRETTI

Seat Scienze
A.A. 2016/2017
Credits 9
Hours 72
Period Corso annuale
Language ENG
U-gov code ST03 3S457

Prerequisites

Elements of mathematics, geology, geomorphology, meteorology, topography.

Development of the course

There will be lectures and practical exercises carried out individually or in small groups. Educational trips are also provided.

Learning outcomes

Knowledge:
Students will acquire the basic knowledge about natural hazards that may evolve into catastrophic scenarios. Predictability of such risks and remote control techniques, monitoring, supervision and interpretation of data and the physical parameters that contribute to the understanding of hazardous events are the other key concept of the course.

Knowledge:
Students will acquire the methodology for the approach to knowledge and analysis of natural hazards in multidisciplinary context. They will relate them to multiple  factors such as the organization of the territory and of human activities.

Soft skills:
Lectures, tests in classroom and exercises help the student to became confident with specific terminology related to risks and improve its autonomy to judge and exanimate new unusual and unpredictable scenarios.

Program

RISK CALCULATION
Identification and risk calculation (the matrix method), cartographic reading and interpretation, analysis of topographic maps.
THE MODELING OPERATIONAL CHAIN FOR LANDSLIDE AND FLOOD RISK FORECAST
Nowcasting forecast tools: weather satellite a and radar
Forecast models: Global Circulation Models and Limited Area Models
Forecast using meteorological model outputs.
LANDSLIDE RISK
Lithological setting of Marche
Landslides: predisposing and triggering factors.
Analysis of different case studies
Rainfall and landslides relation for landslide forecast
Rainfall landslides thresholds
Physical based models and empirical relations for landslide forecast
Other regions studies
CF Marche activities
FLOOD RISK
Flood development stage
spatial and temporal scale
rainfall interpolation
rainfall data processing 
Hydrological models
Rainfall flood thresholds
Elements of hydraulics models
Flood risk mitigation
FIRE RISK
Monitoring integrated systems
Risk management. Extinguishing activities
Planning and prevention
SEISMIC RISK
Seismogenesis.
Precursors.
Monitoring systems and data processing
Prevention activities
Case studies
VOLCANIC RISK
volcanism
Precursors.
PREVENTION ACTIVITIES
Case studies
EMERGENCY PLANNING
Summary of laws for emergency planning
Data for planning activities
Augustus method
Scenarios
Operational activities for risk management
EMERGENCY PLANNING
Emergency planning methods and civil protection plans as a non-structural prevention tools. At least 2 excursions dedicated to the direct knowledge of remote control systems, monitoring and strategic infrastructures.

An educational trip of two days dedicated to the specific knowledge of the control, monitoring, management and coordination of activities for the prediction and prevention of natural hazards is foreseen.

Development of the examination

Methods for assessing learning outcomes:
During the course, two tests are presented to students with at least 15 open questions. Questions concerns topics treated in previous lessons. 

Criteria for assessing learning outcomes: 
Mid test results are used during the final exam which is based on an interview with the student. Such oral examination consist in at least 3 questions. 

Criteria for measuring learning outcomes:
The final mark is awarded out of thirty.

Criteria for conferring final mark:
The exam is passed when the grade is greater than or equal to 18. It is expected to be awarded the highest marks with honors (30 cum laude)

Recommended reading

Lectures notes;
Rosso Renzo, manuale di protezione idraulica del territorio. Appendice sulla normativa italiana in materia di difesa del suolo, protezione civile e dighe, CUSL (Milano) collana scientifica;
David E. Alexander, “Calamità Naturali”; Pitagora Editrice Bologna

Courses

• Scienze ambientali e protezione civile